However, others warn that the pandemic could be far more economically destructive than any past outbreak, and caution that a recovery could take much longer. The hope is that economies can power down without causing extreme disruptions, such as widespread business failures or joblessness, and then quickly get back up to speed after the pandemic abates.įor now, some economists hope for a strong global rebound in the third quarter, mirroring the recoveries in Asia after the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) outbreak of 2003. Major industries, especially airlines and other travel-related sectors, are on the brink of bankruptcy. Billions of people worldwide remain under some type of lockdown. Many governments have effectively frozen social and economic activity in all or parts of their countries to contain the outbreak, shuttering nonessential businesses and ordering residents to stay at home for weeks or months. Meanwhile, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said its indicators produced the strongest warning on record that most major economies had entered a “sharp slowdown.” The World Trade Organization, for its part, forecast that nearly all regions of the world would suffer double-digit declines in trade this year, with North American and Asian exporters hit hardest. “We anticipate the worst economic fallout since the Great Depression,” said Kristalina Georgieva, managing director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Readings in April suggested the global economy was sailing into a colossal storm. Many, however, are moving forward with stunning bailouts that could collectively top $10 trillion.
Given the extraordinary nature of the pandemic-induced crisis, fiscal and monetary policymakers are working without a playbook. Indonesia’s Election Exposes Growing Religious Divide
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